If Google’s $3.1 billion purchase of Doubleclick is approved, it could have significant implications for the online industry. Following a review of past trends and taking a view on the immediate future, the combined Google/Doubleclick group will put in motion three major events.

1. Google’s Ad Sense and Ad Words will become the world’s largest advertising platforms. Obviously this could only be a possibility if Google can leverage the thousands of publishers using Doubleclick’s DART technology to serve and manage ad inventory across their sites. The reality is that Ad Sense could become a powerful advertising platform combining display ads, search listings and video ads. However and as discussed in previous posts on Google, the future success of the platform is more a matter of service than reach.

2. Microsoft to purchase aQuantive, or RealMedia direct competitors of Doubleclick. 24/7 Real Media seems to be a more likely target given its’ large global footprint, advancements in mobile and large advertising network. Furthermore, a purchase of aQuantive would be complicated by aQuantive’s online advertising agency Avenue A/Razorfish. Media and advertising agencies, which buy advertising from Microsoft properties such as MSN, would view this as a conflict of interest. Having said that ATLAS has invested heavily in the development of a delivery and management platform for interactive television – an area of growth for Microsoft.  

3. Google/Doubleclick will renew calls for stricter legislation on the use of data online to “protect consumer privacy online”. Given the combined Google/Doubleclick would account for 80% of all global ad-serving the implications are significant. Without a doubt it will spark legislators in the US and the UK into action, looking to review legislation such as the 2002 European Union Telecommunication Privacy Directive containing rules about the use of cookies. In response to pressure from the media and privacy groups, Doubleclick issued a statement with the headline “We do not own customer data”. While Google/Doubleclick might not own the data, it does own the aggregated data related to behaviour and usage patterns. A privacy complaint has already been filed by three public-interest groups with the Federal Trade Commission, asking the US Trade Commission to review Doubleclick’s data usage policies.

More significantly, Google has always defended its position on privacy by reminding the industry is does not implement cookies. The purchase of Doubleclick will force Google to modify this no cookie policy.   

However, the impact of the combined group could be short lived.

The future of online advertising is in content. YouTube if anything proves this true. Furthermore, content owners are waking from their long hibernation and embracing the opportunities at hand. One of the most promising ventures is “NewTube”. NBC Universal and Fox are developing a new platform dubbed “NewTube” offering all of the networks’s shows across multiple sites including AOL, Yahoo, MSN and MySpace. “NewTube” will reach 96% of the US online population and compete directly for the leisure time of US consumers.  

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